Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium: Working together to advance breast cancer research
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Ongoing Collaborations: Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) is a consortium of NCI-sponsored investigators who focus on using modeling to improve our understanding of the impact of cancer control interventions (e.g., prevention, screening treatment) on population trends in incidence and mortality. These models are also used to project future trends, and to help determine optimal cancer control strategies.

The BCSC has contributed data to the breast modeling of CISNET, to address the impact of mammography and adjuvant therapy on trends in breast cancer mortality from 1975-2000. The purpose of this modeling effort is to partition observed mortality trends into components associated with the increased use of adjuvant therapy, mammography, and background changes in underlying risk. Certainly the current debate surrounding mammography has made this a timely topic, especially as investigators attempt to weigh any mortality gains against its downsides, such as overdiagnosis and false positives.

The CISNET breast cancer simulations will form the basis of a special Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monograph on the subject. The monograph will include a description of each model, as well as a synthesis of results from the simulations, depicting model differences and similarities over the results.

CISNET Publications Using BCSC data

Bailey SL, Sigal BM, Plevritis SK. A simulation model investigating the impact of tumor volume doubling time and mammographic tumor detectability on screening outcomes in women aged 40-49 years. J Natl Cancer Inst 2010 Aug 18;102(16):1263-71. [View Abstract]

Batina NG, Trentham-Dietz A, Gangnon RE, Sprague BL, Rosenberg MA, Stout NK, Fryback DG, Alagoz O. Variation in tumor natural history contributes to racial disparities in breast cancer stage at diagnosis. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2013 Apr;138(2):519-28. [View Abstract]

Berry DA, Cronin KA, Plevritis SK, Fryback DG, Clarke L, Zelen M, Mandelblatt JS, Yakovlev AY, Habbema JD, Feuer EJ; Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Collaborators. Effect of screening and adjuvant therapy on mortality from breast cancer. N Engl J Med 2005 Oct 27;353(17):1784-92. [View Abstract]

Berry DA, Inoue L, Shen Y, Venier J, Cohen D, Bondy M, Theriault R, Munsell MF. Modeling the impact of treatment and screening on U.S. breast cancer mortality: a Bayesian approach. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):30-6. [View Abstract]

Braithwaite D, Mandelblatt JS, Kerlikowske K. To screen or not to screen older women for breast cancer: a conundrum. Future Oncol 2013 Jun;9(6):763-6. [Look up in PubMed]

Chang Y, Schechter CB, van Ravesteyn NT, Near AM, Heijnsdijk EA, Adams-Campbell L, Levy D, de Koning HJ, Mandelblatt JS. Collaborative modeling of the impact of obesity on race-specific breast cancer incidence and mortality. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2012 Dec;136(3):823-35. [View Abstract]

Clarke LD, Plevritis SK, Boer R, Cronin KA, Feuer EJ. A comparative review of CISNET breast models used to analyze U.S. breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):96-105. Review. [View Abstract]

Cott Chubiz JE, Lee JM, Gilmore ME, Kong CY, Lowry KP, Halpern EF, McMahon PM, Ryan PD, Gazelle GS. Cost-effectiveness of alternating magnetic resonance imaging and digital mammography screening in BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers. Cancer 2013 Mar 15;119(6):1266-76. [View Abstract]

Cronin KA, Feuer EJ, Clarke LD, Plevritis SK. Impact of adjuvant therapy and mammography on U.S. mortality from 1975 to 2000: comparison of mortality results from the cisnet breast cancer base case analysis. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):112-21. [View Abstract]

Cronin KA, Mariotto AB, Clarke LD, Feuer EJ. Additional common inputs for analyzing impact of adjuvant therapy and mammography on U.S. mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):26-9. Review. [View Abstract]

Feuer EJ. Modeling the impact of adjuvant therapy and screening mammography on U.S. breast cancer mortality between 1975 and 2000: introduction to the problem. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):2-6. Review. [Look up in PubMed]

Fryback DG, Stout NK, Rosenberg MA, Trentham-Dietz A, Kuruchittham V, Remington PL. The Wisconsin Breast Cancer Epidemiology Simulation Model. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):37-47. [View Abstract]

Habbema JD, Tan SY, Cronin KA. Impact of mammography on U.S. breast cancer mortality, 1975-2000: are intermediate outcome measures informative? J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):105-11. [View Abstract]

Hanin LG, Miller A, Zorin AV, Yakovlev AY. The University of Rochester model of breast cancer detection and survival. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):66-78. [View Abstract]

Holford TR, Cronin KA, Mariotto AB, Feuer EJ. Changing patterns in breast cancer incidence trends. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):19-25. [View Abstract]

Lee S, Huang H, Zelen M. Early detection of disease and scheduling of screening examinations. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):443-56. [View Abstract]

Lee S, Zelen M. A stochastic model for predicting the mortality of breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):79-86. [View Abstract]

Lee SJ, Zelen M. Mortality modeling of early detection programs. Biometrics 2008 Jun;64(2):386-95. [View Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Cronin KA, Bailey S, Berry DA, de Koning HJ, Draisma G, Huang H, Lee SJ, Munsell M, Plevritis SK, Ravdin P, Schechter CB, Sigal B, Stoto MA, Stout NK, van Ravesteyn NT, Venier J, Zelen M, Feuer EJ; Breast Cancer Working Group of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network. Effects of mammography screening under different screening schedules: model estimates of potential benefits and harms. Ann Intern Med 2009 Nov 17;151(10):738-47. Erratum in: Ann Intern Med. 2010 Jan 19;152(2):136. [View Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Cronin KA, Berry DA, Chang Y, de Koning HJ, Lee SJ, Plevritis SK, Schechter CB, Stout NK, van Ravesteyn NT, Zelen M, Feuer EJ. Modeling the impact of population screening on breast cancer mortality in the United States. Breast 2011 Oct;20 Suppl 3:S75-81. doi: 10.1016/S0960-9776(11)70299-5. [View Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, Schechter CB, Lawrence W, Yi B, Cullen J. The SPECTRUM population model of the impact of screening and treatment on U.S. breast cancer trends from 1975 to 2000: principles and practice of the model methods. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):47-55. [View Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Schechter CB, Yabroff KR, Lawrence W, Dignam J, Extermann M, Fox S, Orosz G, Silliman R, Cullen J, Balducci L; Breast Cancer in Older Women Research Consortium. Toward optimal screening strategies for older women. Costs, benefits, and harms of breast cancer screening by age, biology, and health status. J Gen Intern Med 2005 Jun;20(6):487-96. [View Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Stout NK, Schechter CB, van den Broek JJ, Miglioretti DL, Krapcho M, Trentham-Dietz A, Munoz D, Lee SJ, Berry DA, van Ravesteyn NT, Alagoz O, Kerlikowske K, Tosteson AN, Near AM, Hoeffken A, Chang Y, Heijnsdijk EA, Chisholm G, Huang X, Huang H, Ergun MA, Gangnon R, Sprague BL, Plevritis S, Feuer E, de Koning HJ, Cronin KA. Collaborative Modeling of the Benefits and Harms Associated With Different U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies. Ann Intern Med 2016 Feb 16;164(4):215-25. [View Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Tosteson AN, van Ravesteyn NT. Costs, evidence, and value in the Medicare program: the challenges of technology innovation in breast cancer prevention and control. JAMA Intern Med 2013 Feb 11;173(3):227-8. [Look up in PubMed]

Mandelblatt J, van Ravesteyn N, Schechter C, Chang Y, Huang AT, Near AM, de Koning H, Jemal A. Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention. Cancer 2013 Jul 15;119(14):2541-8. [View Abstract]

Miglioretti DL, Lange J, van den Broek JJ, Lee CI, van Ravesteyn NT, Ritley D, Kerlikowske K, Fenton JJ, Melnikow J, de Koning HJ, Hubbard RA. Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality From Digital Mammography Screening: A Modeling Study. Ann Intern Med 2016 Feb 16;164(4):205-14. [View Abstract]

Mittmann NM, Stout NK, Lee P, Tosteson AN, Trentham-Dietz A, Alagoz O, Yaffe MJ. Total cost-effectiveness of mammography screening strategies. Health Rep 2015 Dec 16;26(12):16-25. [View Abstract]

Munoz D, Near AM, van Ravesteyn NT, Lee SJ, Schechter CB, Alagoz O, Berry DA, Burnside ES, Chang Y, Chisholm G, de Koning HJ, Ali Ergun M, Heijnsdijk EA, Huang H, Stout NK, Sprague BL, Trentham-Dietz A, Mandelblatt JS, Plevritis SK. Effects of screening and systemic adjuvant therapy on ER-specific US breast cancer mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Sep 24;106(11). pii: dju289. Print 2014 Nov. [View Abstract]

Near AM, Mandelblatt JS, Schechter CB, Stoto MA. Using Simulation Modeling to Inform Strategies to Reduce Breast Cancer Mortality in Black Women in the District of Columbia. Epidemiol Res Int 2012 Apr 26;2012(2012). pii: 241340. [View Abstract]

Plevritis SK, Sigal BM, Salzman P, Rosenberg J, Glynn P. A stochastic simulation model of U.S. breast cancer mortality trends from 1975 to 2000. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):86-95. [View Abstract]

Rosenberg MA. Competing risks to breast cancer mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):15-9. [View Abstract]

Scheel JR, Lee JM, Sprague BL, Lee CI, Lehman CD. Screening ultrasound as an adjunct to mammography in women with mammographically dense breasts. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2015 Jan;212(1):9-17. Review. [View Abstract]

Sprague BL, Gangnon RE, Burt V, Trentham-Dietz A, Hampton JM, Wellman RD, Kerlikowske K, Miglioretti DL. Prevalence of mammographically dense breasts in the United States. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Sep 12;106(10). pii: dju255. Print 2014 Oct. [View Abstract]

Sprague BL, Stout NK, Schechter C, van Ravesteyn NT, Cevik M, Alagoz O, Lee CI, van den Broek JJ, Miglioretti DL, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ, Kerlikowske K, Lehman CD, Tosteson AN. Benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of supplemental ultrasonography screening for women with dense breasts. Ann Intern Med 2015 Feb 3;162(3):157-66. doi: 10.7326/M14-0692. [View Abstract]

Tan SY, van Oortmarssen GJ, de Koning HJ, Boer R, Habbema JD. The MISCAN-Fadia continuous tumor growth model for breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):56-65. [View Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, Schechter CB, Near AM, Heijnsdijk EA, Stoto MA, Draisma G, de Koning HJ, Mandelblatt JS. Race-specific impact of natural history, mammography screening, and adjuvant treatment on breast cancer mortality rates in the United States. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011 Jan;20(1):112-22. [View Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, Stout NK, Schechter CB, Heijnsdijk EA, Alagoz O, Trentham-Dietz A, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ. Benefits and harms of mammography screening after age 74 years: model estimates of overdiagnosis. J Natl Cancer Inst 2015 May 6;107(7). pii: djv103. Print 2015 Jul. [View Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, van Lier L, Schechter CB, Ekwueme DU, Royalty J, Miller JW, Near AM, Cronin KA, Heijnsdijk EA, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ. Transition from film to digital mammography: impact for breast cancer screening through the national breast and cervical cancer early detection program. Am J Prev Med 2015 May;48(5):535-42. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2014.11.010. [View Abstract]

Yaffe MJ, Mittmann N, Lee P, Tosteson AN, Trentham-Dietz A, Alagoz O, Stout NK. Clinical outcomes of modelling mammography screening strategies. Health Rep 2015 Dec 16;26(12):9-15. [View Abstract]

Yaffe MJ, Mittmann N, Lee P, Tosteson AN, Trentham-Dietz A, Alagoz O, Stout NK. Modelling mammography screening for breast cancer in the Canadian context: Modification and testing of a microsimulation model. Health Rep 2015 Dec 16;26(12):3-8. [View Abstract]

Full list of CISNET publications