New Risk Prediction Model Estimates Risk of Advanced Breast Cancer

New BCSC study has developed a new risk model for predicting the risk of advanced stage breast cancer based on screening frequency.

Posted by Karla Kerlikowske at 3:00 PM on Feb 9, 2022


BCSC researchers developed a new risk model that predicts risk of advanced stage breast cancer according to whether a woman undergoes screening every year or every two years. The model includes eight variables: age, first-degree relative with breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, race/ethnicity, breast density, body mass index, menopause status and screening frequency. High breast density and obesity were two of the strongest risk factors for advanced staged breast cancer. Using this model co-authors found that 69.1% of women had low or average advanced cancer risk whether screened every year or every two years; 12.4% had intermediate risk with screening every two years and average risk with screening every year, suggesting screening every year may benefit this group; and 17.4% had high or intermediate risk whether screened every year or every two years, suggesting they may consider screening every year and supplemental imaging. This actionable risk model estimates women’s cumulative 6-year risk of advanced-stage breast cancer and can be used to decide how often women should be screened and whether supplemental imaging should be considered. The authors are developing an online risk calculator that can be used in clinical practice prior to requesting routine screening to determine a woman’s advanced breast cancer risk with screening every year or every two years to inform screening decisions.

Kerlikowske K, Chen S, Golmakani MK, Sprague BL, Tice JA, Tosteson ANA, Rauscher GH, Henderson LM, Buist DSM, Lee JM, Gard CC, Miglioretti DL. Development of a cumulative advanced breast cancer risk prediction model in a screening mammography population. J Natl Cancer Inst 2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djac008 [Link]

Posted by: Karla Kerlikowske